Ecuador's Rise in Cocoa: Is the Global Supply Map Changing?
Ecuador could become the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2026/27 season. Earlier forecasts expected this for 2025/26, but Ghana held second place with about 771,000 tons.
For European buyers of raw cocoa, the forces behind this shift matter more than the ranking itself.
The numbers behind the race
A change of rank in 2026/27 is possible, but the margin is thin.
| Country | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | Outlook 2026/2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana (production) | 603,840 t | about 771,000 t | about 648,000 t (COCOBOD expects a decline of at least 16%) |
| Ecuador | 568,233 t (exports, +35% y-o-y) | final data pending | more than 650,000 t (Anecacao forecast) |
COCOBOD attributes its expected decline to likely El Niño conditions, excessive rain in May and June and the cocoa tree's alternate bearing cycle.
Two caveats apply on the Ecuadorian side. Export volumes from January to July 2026 were 8.3% below the prior year, according to reports on Anecacao data. Forecasts have also diverged widely: estimates for Ecuador's 2025/26 crop ranged from 560,000 to 650,000 tons across major forecasting houses.
Why Ecuador keeps growing
Three structural factors drive Ecuador's expansion.
• Yields: Ecuadorian farms produce about 800 kg per hectare per year, according to Anecacao. Industry data put the West African average, including Ghana, just under 500 kg.
• Farmer income: Growers in Ecuador receive around 90% of the world price. In Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, farmers get about 60 to 70% at best, which limits reinvestment in their plots.
• Farming system: Much of Ecuador's cocoa grows in agroforestry systems with shade trees, plantain, coffee and fruit trees, which help contain disease.
Ghana faces structural pressure in its two key regions, Western and Western North, which together supply more than half of national output. Swollen shoot virus, ageing farms and illegal gold mining (galamsey) weigh on production there.
What it means for European buyers
Quality is not uniform
Much of Ecuador's volume growth comes from CCN-51, a high-yielding clone bred in Ecuador, and less from the traditional Nacional variety known for its fine flavour. Estimates of CCN-51's share vary widely: a 2015 USDA report put it at 36% of production, while a large Nacional grower estimated 80% in 2018.
European importers reflect this split in their ranges: Bohnkaf, for example, lists Ecuadorian Arriba (Nacional) in several grades and CCN-51 as a separate quality. Contracts should therefore specify variety and grade, not only origin.
Prices remain volatile
ICE New York cocoa futures stood at about $5,933 per ton on 13 October 2026. That is roughly double the three-year low below $2,900 in late February 2026, yet less than half the December 2024 record above $12,000. Forecasts for 2026/27 diverge: Citi expects a global deficit of 56,000 tons, while StoneX projects a surplus of 149,000 tons.
Weather risk also reaches Latin America
Côte d'Ivoire's weather agency expects a rainfall deficit through early 2027 as El Niño strengthens. Analysts have flagged El Niño risks for Latin American producers as well. Sourcing from Ecuador reduces concentration risk; it does not remove weather risk.
EUDR applies from 30 December 2026
From that date, large and medium operators and traders placing cocoa on the EU market must show it is deforestation-free since 31 December 2020, legally produced and covered by a due diligence statement. Most micro and small operators follow on 30 June 2027. Origins with reliable plot-level traceability gain weight in supplier selection.
Bottom line for procurement strategy
Ecuador has become a volume origin that European buyers can plan around, whether or not it formally takes second place in 2026/27. Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together still supply about half of the world's cocoa, so the shift is gradual.
Three points follow for procurement teams:
1. Build a multi-origin portfolio with Ecuador as one pillar, not as a replacement for West Africa. Other Latin American origins broaden that base: Bohnkaf, for instance, sources from Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Panama and the Dominican Republic alongside Ecuador.
2. Specify variety, grade and flavour profile in Ecuadorian contracts.
3. Track monthly Anecacao export data and COCOBOD figures to read the 2026/27 trend early.
For Bohnkaf, Ecuador’s growing role reinforces the value of a diversified sourcing network across Central and South America.
